Projected District 1 vote total after early voting: 1329
We will assume a total of 140 on the final day. Could be more; probably won't be less. I'm guessing between 800 and 1,000 on Election Day which means the winner of Jeff Sparks and Charles Spence's race should need around 1,150 votes to win.
It may be up to the candidates to drive their voters to the pole, which means Sparks' robo-calling efforts to likely voters (including myself) this week may pay dividends.
Of course if you believe the idea that the older voter has already cast a ballot and that voter is more likely to vote for Spence, then things may be looking up for the former publisher.
Through Thursday
Early voters: 2,415
By Mail: 256
Total votes: 2,671
District 1
By Precinct
204 (Polo Park and north) 215
206 (Midland College) 166
210 (Goddard) 95
211 (E of 349, north of 250) 40
404 (Around Trinity and Parker Elementary) 223
407 (South of Briarwood, west of Midland Drive) 59
408 (Mockingbird/Santa Rita)153
409 (Green Tree) 238
Total: 1189. (Average 132)
It may be up to the candidates to drive their voters to the pole, which means Sparks' robo-calling efforts to likely voters (including myself) this week may pay dividends.
Of course if you believe the idea that the older voter has already cast a ballot and that voter is more likely to vote for Spence, then things may be looking up for the former publisher.
Through Thursday
Early voters: 2,415
By Mail: 256
Total votes: 2,671
District 1
By Precinct
204 (Polo Park and north) 215
206 (Midland College) 166
210 (Goddard) 95
211 (E of 349, north of 250) 40
404 (Around Trinity and Parker Elementary) 223
407 (South of Briarwood, west of Midland Drive) 59
408 (Mockingbird/Santa Rita)153
409 (Green Tree) 238
Total: 1189. (Average 132)
Comment
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Comment by Dom Evets on October 30, 2009 at 11:06am - I'm surprised by the low key nature of this campaign. There have been very few newspaper ads. Spence is the only one I've seen on tv and I have heard nothing on the radio. I understand the emphasis on door-to-door campaigning, yard signs and phone solicitations because only about 25% of the city is eligible to vote in this contest. Right now I give a slight edge to Sparks but won't be surprised or disappointed either way it goes.
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